The Fallacy of Averages
Friends,
First off, thank you to those who sent in some examples of humor. Special shout out to Lisa who sent some incredible George Carlin quotes here and to Michael for sharing this funny skit. Both made me laugh hard – but, I would love more! Please read last week’s newsletter and share your favorite sources of laughter!
As we enter October, the atmosphere around us feels clouded. I see some good signs in terms of COVID and some cautious signs for the long and hard climb back to normalcy in its aftermath. I sense a lot of this same confusion, trepidation, and anxiety being cast inwards as well. In looking forward, we’re being forced to evaluate which aspects of our former lives we want back ASAP and, perhaps, also experiencing some resistance to bringing back things we actually don’t miss. I think those emotions are adding weight to our public discourse on how and when to get back – get back to what? These are important conversations to be had. And, of course, it’s great that our presidential debate was so illuminating, informing, and profoundly inspiring and gave us clear choices on who best can lead us to the future we want. Sorry. Just had to say it – that was a poor attempt of humor.
My main area of reflection this week is a short one: data and statistics. More specifically, averages.
While I was in business school, I took a few “deep dives” into unfamiliar topics. Unexpectedly, I found myself in quite a few statistics courses. At the time, I didn’t consider math my strong suit, nor had I shown much interest for the field of statistics prior. However, those classes, coupled with my early career at the Boston Consulting group, gave me good training in the field of critical thinking and the importance of using data to inform, illuminate, and illustrate. It gave me sufficient instincts to never trust a graph or a chart and to always know that there are lies, there are damned lies – and then there is statistics.
Averages are a particularly unhelpful statistic that are overused. They certainly have their place, but the data they provide is often more confusing than helpful.
A few examples:
Your average temperature is fine, but one foot is on an ice block and the other is on fire. Are you feeling well?
As an article below points out: Jeff Bezos walks into a bar and the average income is over $1m
You are crossing a river has an average depth of 3 feet. Where you are crossing, however, is 15 feet deep.
Be wary of averages: they are weapons of mass distraction. They might lead you directionally right, but specifically wrong. We need more precise measures. COVID is a great example. As the great article in the Atlantic below points out, our focus on averages has been a blunt instrument, whereas applying more surgical strikes would have been more effective and much less costly (measured in both lives lost, money spent, and suffering endured).
When looking for what is good or bad in life, we learn most from the outliers – the extremes. The game of golf is a great example. I learned from my wife’s famous UCLA Women’s golf coach that golf is a percentage game. If you want to improve your score, ignore the average. Rather, focus on your outliers – your bad shots. If you reduce a few really bad shots, your scores will improve. The same can be said about almost everything in life. Focus on the outliers. Do more of the “good” things and less of the bad. The averages will take care of themselves.
Here's what I've been reading & watching this week:
Here is a great article from the Atlantic talking about COVID and averages, as well as 80/20 rules.
Here is a good short article on the pitfalls of using averages
Here is another good one on averages, and here is a bit more “mathiness” on the same, if you desire
Here is a video on averages if you prefer motion
And if you want something else, here is a short blog from Seth Godin on challenging beliefs
Lastly, I was honored to be interviewed as a part of Workforce Management Day hosted by Quinyx. You can find the interview here. I’m often asked what it is that I do and how I got there. For those of you who are interested, it gives some good background to my story and why I believe so passionately that purpose is paramount. It helps us to find what unites us, rather than divides us – it’s the message that moves me forward in life and in this newsletter!
I hope you will have a week filled with surprising and delightful outliers.
