Are We Too Confident?
“It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”
— WILL ROGERS
Friends!
This week, I want to talk about the fallacy of certainty.
My partner Tony Tjan often says: "Confidence is great when you are right, but it's a big problem when you are wrong." The same is true for the Will Rogers quote I shared above.
So, what is right? What is wrong? How do you know for sure?
Science is awesome. The advancements it has provided to humanity are obvious. One cannot live on this planet and not be in awe of the contributions of science. But like all good things, it also may have some less attractive side effects. I think it has "narrowed" (or at least confused) the constitution of confidence.
To put it simply, there are things that are knowable and things that are not. When it comes to knowable things science is awesome. If you conduct a bunch of experiments, you can then observe and document the data of outcomes. Over time, you recognize patterns, and ultimately you can determine cause and effect. That's brilliant. That's real progress. We can then apply that knowledge and use it for designing policy, education, business models, and health care interventions. All good things. And in no small way, the engine of human progress.
What is less brilliant is when we apply the same "outcome certainty" to things that are NOT knowable. Areas that require more imagination. More emotions. Human behavior is not a science project. At least, not only a science project. There is art involved, too. In this realization, I was lucky. Yet again. I met Dr. Martin Ingvar as a young man in my early 30s. Dr. Ingvar is a well-known Swedish brain researcher. I was fascinated by the brain and wanted to learn everything I could. After several engagements, Dr. Ingvar gave me some advice. Reluctant as I am to recall, this was well over 20 years ago. I am forever grateful for that piece of advice. It made me a lot less certain. But also a lot more curious. He said:
Mats, I have a feeling you are looking for the key to unlocking the human brain. Like looking for a math equation. Once you have found it, you will plug in the inputs and get the same output. While I share your fascination for the brain, I must warn you. I don't want you to get disappointed. You will never find that equation. It doesn't exist.
He then gave me this incredibly powerful quote from the British philosopher Emerson Pugh:
If the human brain were so simple that we could understand it, we would be so simple that we couldn’t.
Those words brought it home to me. There are limits to what we typically refer to as "knowledge" or "truth." Learning is, to some extent, an asymptotic journey which means you are never "done." You never arrive. The more you learn, the more appetite you typically develop to learn more. Aren't the smartest people you know also the most curious?
I listened to a great podcast with Shane Parish (@FarnamStreet) the other day. He interviewed Roger Martin, one of the most celebrated business teachers in modern times. Professor Martin has written many books on a host of topics, but I guess his latest books thematically center around Integrative Thinking. This is partly about resisting the temptation to pick one of two choices. We live in a world of binary bias. We are almost always presented with two alternatives. Whenever presented with limited or imperfect choices, force yourself to come up with all great aspects of both of them. And then all the less desirable ones. Then ask yourself, is there a third way? Is there some solution out there where you can keep the best of both worlds? Look at some of your favorite brands. Apple figured out a way to make technology user-friendly and beautiful WITHOUT sacrificing performance. Costco managed to offer attractive prices and yet keep very high quality. Chipotle stated that the problem with fast food wasn't that the food was fast. It was the food. So, they introduced the Fast Casual segment. I can go on. But the point is that binary thinking limits our imagination and the realization of new opportunities.
Most of our modern culture poses our choices in pairs of two. We can be Democrats or Republicans. You can be rich or poor. We can have a lockdown or completely open society. There is climate change or not.
We all know that none of these depictions are correct. They very poorly represent most of us. We are not labels. We are not easily put into a convenient box that fits all our expressions, desires, hopes, and dreams. Our short-term, sensationalist, and divisive media patterns have amplified the worst of our binary habits. We have to resist that. All of us.
So here is my hope. Never accept a binary choice. Or, at least be more aware when you feel you are about to do so. There are always more options. Celebrate the wonders of uncertainty over a false sense of security. When you don't know, just say it. I don't have an opinion. Let me ask some questions. Let's see what the options are. Let's then decide what aspects of the various options we like and what we don't like.
We have rightfully arrived at the conclusion that diversity is a really important organizational design principle. Ecosystems die without it. Monocultures are less productive, less resilient to pathogens, and ultimately less sustainable. In farming, we are witnessing a resurgence of regenerative agriculture, which is restoring soil health by introducing a much more diverse farming practice. It is my hope that we can do the same for our public conversation and public discourse. Let's commit to knowing less. At least of things we don't know.
Or, as I learned from my favorite Pogo Strip:
The misery of uncertainty is far greater than the certainty of misery
Things that inspired me this week:
Happy to have ordered Gary Taube's newest book on eating: The Case for Keto. Here is Zoe Harcombe's brilliant review. If you haven't read Gary's books, they are highly recommended. I will most likely refer to this book again once I have read it. Eating better is a top priority for our nation and the world.
Found this blog by Scott Galloway very insightful. “The Great Dispersion”-- how the pandemic and tech boom is changing the game.
Another great blog from Angela Duckworth on mastery and confidence. Repetition is the mother of knowledge they say. It's true for most things. We get better at most things the more we do them. And that too is worth repeating!
The aforementioned podcast with Farnam Street and Professor Roger Martin on Integrative Thinking
Found this short clip by Matthew McConnaughey inspiring. On why we should STOP investing our hopes in people we don't know and distancing ourselves from responsibility. It's up to us. (Reminds me of my favorite Jerry Garcia quote: “Somebody has to do something and it's just incredibly pathetic that it has to be us.”)
Intrigued by the Pope and this commitment towards shaping capitalism towards more inclusivity
Have a great week!
