The Illusion of Continuity
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THE ILLUSION OF CONTINUITY
So, I hope you had a good week and that you treated yourself a bit kinder and loved yourself more. Personally, I committed myself to meditating more this week and tried harder to be gentler in my judgment. I like the feeling it produces. Somehow, if we all could resist the urge to cast so much judgment, I think we would soon discover that opportunities reveal themselves more readily than just the problems they often are wrapped in.
As I mentioned last week, I want to dive into another idea that I think is fascinating. It’s the notion that we are better at recognizing change in ourselves when looking back than we are when looking ahead. In the great TED Talk I post below, one that I highly recommend watching, Shankar Vedantam calls this phenomenon "the illusion of continuity".
There is a lot to unpack inside this insight but think about it. We tend to be quite confident about what we want. And when we do, we don't have a lot of humility around options. If we have a goal, we go after it. Often with complete conviction and certitude. Some may call it “tunnel vision”. And that is, of course, all good and productive.
But over time, when looking back, we readily recognize that we have changed our priorities quite a bit. What we cared about 10-20 years ago, we care less about today. What made us animated back then might not move us as much today. That conviction, in retrospect, becomes much less certain.
So, here is an experiment. What if we had to assess the likelihood that we will keep a certain opinion exactly the same in 10 years? And then, let's say you had to weigh all your opinions against that factor. If we did that honestly, I think the weighted average of our opinions would be reduced.
Why does this matter?
It matters a lot. First, it happens to be both honest and true. But more importantly than that, when you disagree with someone else, you should include your future self in that group of people. To me, this insight helps us be less concerned, less fearful, and less intimidated by disagreements. It's natural. We can and will change our minds. It's ok. It's part of being human. A "different" opinion does not disqualify another human being from being human. On the contrary, it validates their humanity! But that is not how our current discourse behaves. Which, to me, is a clear indication of the dehumanizing aspect of our current division and polarization.
I just found Shankar's talk so powerful. Both WHAT he talks about and HOW he talks about it. It was clearly one of my favorite talks from Vancouver this year. I am happy it is now released, and I hope it can help elevate humility around certitude about the future.
Let's face it—the future is unknown. We should never be as confident or certain about it. It's a waste of energy. What we can and perhaps should be confident about is our desire to have a GOOD future. And that should be something we ought to want for all people. How exactly to accomplish that requires curiosity, creativity, cooperation, collaboration, and compassion.
I personally prefer the misery of uncertainty over the certainty of misery. Or, to echo Alice Morse Earle when she "edited" Eleanor Roosevelt: Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery. Today is a gift. That's why it is called the present.
Below is Eleanor Roosevelt's full version. Very relevant to the cultural attitude that we need today more than ever. And it starts with us!
Have a great week!
“Many people will walk in and out of your life, But only true friends will leave footprints in your heart. To handle yourself, use your head; To handle others, use your heart. Anger is only one letter short of danger. If someone betrays you once, it is his fault; If he betrays you twice, it is your fault. Great minds discuss ideas; Average minds discuss events; Small minds discuss people. He who loses money, loses much; He, who loses a friend, loses much more; He, who loses faith, loses all. Beautiful young people are accidents of nature, But beautiful old people are works of art. Learn from the mistakes of others. You can’t live long enough to make them all yourself. Friends, you and me.... You brought another friend.... And then there were 3.... We started our group.... Our circle of friends.... And like that circle.... There is no beginning or end.... Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is mystery. Today is a gift.”