Zero-Sum Thinking

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Zero-Sum Thinking

This week, I am thinking a lot about zero-sum thinking. As a reader of these newsletters, you have probably noticed that I am quite interested in mental models and how it is that we believe what we believe. My primary interest is, of course, rooted in the fact that I believe we very much are what we believe. So, as a logical conclusion, then, I must also be curious and interested in WHY we believe what we believe. I guess, to make a pithier point: Aristotle reminded us that we are what we repeatedly do. This is true —but I believe we do what we repeatedly believe.

The answer to the question of why we believe what we believe is, of course, multifaceted. Like most things in life. There is probably some type of genetic disposition at play here, even though I am rather sure we exaggerate and confuse that with the environment in which we grow up. Nature and Nurture are intricate siblings that affect the shape we take in ways that I am not sure we understand. At least, not nearly as much as we think.

But I tend to be a non-deterministic type of believer. Meaning, I think it is possible to change just about any belief or thought we have. That is, if we want to. And if we work on it. Clearly, there are aspects of our being that we can’t change. Like height, susceptibility to certain diseases, eye color, and a whole host of features. But beliefs are more like bugs than they are features in our human “tech stack”, if you will. Meaning, they can be replaced and, in some cases, they SHOULD be replaced.

The two main contributors to our belief system are, in my humble opinion, your diet. Not what you eat, literally (though your diet affects your beliefs by way of affecting your mood and disposition.). But here, I am thinking of a different kind of diet—your relational and informational diets. Meaning, who you spend most time with and what type of information you consume.

I have written extensively before (in this post and others) about our social contagion and about the fact that we humans are not that different from the average of the five people we spend the most time with. We are mimetic creatures and we imitate the typical behaviors around us. Information plays the same role and can play tricks on us. If we only listen to one type of information, we will soon believe the essence of what we are being fed.

This might also explain why social media has had such a consequential impact on the fabric of our culture. Think about it. Algorithms feed us only what we like to read and listen to (and also by people we trust and relate to). It really is like living in an echo chamber on steroids.

One mental model that I have always been curious about, and one I would state emphatically that I disagree with, is the notion of life as a zero-sum game. I think zero-sum thinking is like a little nasty bug that has crept into a lot of peoples’ belief systems and has affected and broadly shaped both politics and policy for decades.

I am not going to do a deep dive into the more academic explanation and roots of this belief system. I will share a few links below for those who are interested. But the gist of it is not difficult to understand. Zero-sum thinking is simply believing that in order for someone to win, someone else has to lose.

Of course, sports have probably contributed to the extension and extrapolation of this way of thinking. In most games, there is a winner and a loser. That’s just a fact.
Our politics has, of course, been hijacked by ONLY this type of thinking, it seems. And it has also only become about winning.

But if you think about the real values and treasures of a life well lived you will soon recognize that zero-sum thinking is a limiting, debilitating, and ultimately disempowering way of thinking.

Consider love. I certainly believe that love is abundant, regenerative, and as far from zero-sum as you can come. The more you love, the more love you will receive. And who doesn’t love love?

Look at business and our economy. It is simply irrefutable that our economic free market system, in the last hundred years, has produced enormous wealth and lifted just about everyone, globally, out of poverty. Yes, it is equally true that perhaps too few have benefited too much. That’s a different conversation and also an important one. But that is not to say that this development can be characterized as a zero-sum game.

The two graphs below show on the left the tremendous growth in income per capita over the last 100+ years and the graph on the right shows that while, particularly in the last decades, some have benefitted more than others, the rising tide has lifted ALL income. No graph is going down! This is yet another example that in reality most relationships are not zero-sum. It might feel like it but feelings are not facts. 

I believe that zero-sum thinking is a barrier to possibilities (and imagination) for both individuals and organizations. When you are convinced that the only way for me to have something is for someone else not to have something, you will miss out on NEW avenues of thinking that can create NEW value. Innovation is the art of rethinking, reimagining, and repurposing what we have to better use.  And, ultimately, to fuel human progress.

If you have ever met a true entrepreneur (I know I was raised by one and I work with many), you will quickly notice that a common trait of all of them is the complete absence of zero-sum thinking. They see opportunities when others see obstacles, they see possibilities when others see problems, and they find doors when others only see walls.

It’s important to state that this does NOT mean there aren’t problems, injustices, inequalities, and aspects of a society where elements of “redistribution” might not be called for. But while such tactics might “smell” like they are rooted in a zero-sum philosophy, I would argue the good ideas (and once we should pursue) are not, while the bad ones are.

I will just give one example: childcare. I believe, as I have stated a few times on these pages, that the American approach to childcare is really terrible. Young families that desire children struggle mightily to find affordable ways to provide their kids with proper care while going to work. This results in a series of well-documented problems, ranging from falling nativity rates, early childhood education challenges, women (and men) leaving or not participating in the workforce, and just the overall stress level of people trying to juggle the responsibilities of a family and a job. Children are our future, and we are literally reducing the prospect of a brighter future for us all by neglecting the next generation. 

We should provide young families with much more support in helping them to raise families. There are a myriad of ways to accomplish that. And while this could be viewed as a zero-sum idea where we might use taxes to fund these programs, I would argue it’s still not an example of zero-sum beliefs. Mainly because the collective “investment” by all Americans will benefit us all. Plus, the returns on investments in early childhood education are profoundly positive. If you don’t believe me, read Nobel Laureate Professor Jim Heckman's research on the topic which I am confident you will find completely compelling.

There are, of course, so many other good examples of when we should invest together to reap rewards together. Building the internet was a pretty good idea. As are libraries. Or good infrastructure such as airports, railroads, and highways. A good court system and effective policing are other examples that are NOT zero-sum thinking. Those are just smart investments that will benefit everyone.

I think we all have a tendency to fall into the zero-sum trap. It’s easy to do. We are surrounded by it. Binary bias has practically become a natural trait. Left or right. Republican or Democrat. Rich or poor. Happy or miserable. Win or lose.

However, the path to progress is most often found in the cracks and openings between rigid and entrenched positions.

The article that reminded me of zero-sum thinking was an economic article from Harvard. If you are interested, you can read it here. Financial Times had a summary of the work here. And you can watch a really short YouTube video here that makes the case I am trying to make here better!

Have a great week!